270
FXUS62 KTBW 101057
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
657 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 655 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BEST
CHANCES ARE NEAR I-75 THIS AFTERNOON, AND SOME WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
TAMPA BAY AREA TERMINALS, BUT CHANCES NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A TEMPO
GROUP AT THIS TIME. BETTER STORM CHANCES ARE FOR KLAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SITES AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THEM.
MOST ACTIVITY ENDS AFTER 02Z OR SO, THEN A SIMILAR PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. MOISTURE SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 2 IN.
WITH EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING BEFORE SHIFTING ONSHORE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S. THIS WILL BRING SOME AREAS TO EXPERIENCE TRIPLE DIGITS
HEAT INDICES.
ON THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ALLOWING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BEING ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND. THE
COLLISIONS OF THE WEST/EAST COAST BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK, AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ALLOWING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE WILL STAY IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH DURING THE LONG
TERM. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST EARLY
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH AREAS ALONG THE COAST STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 80
DEGREES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
BENIGN MARITIME WEATHER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT 5-10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY INLAND BUT WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST LATER IN THE
EVENING. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP EARLY OVER THE WATERS AND PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OUT OF FIRE DISTRICTS DURING THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 78 90 78 / 60 40 50 10
FMY 94 75 93 77 / 60 50 50 30
GIF 93 74 93 76 / 70 50 60 20
SRQ 92 76 91 77 / 40 40 40 10
BKV 94 73 93 74 / 60 30 50 10
SPG 93 77 91 79 / 40 40 40 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
PREVIOUS...DELERME
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