510
FXUS62 KTBW 101812
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
212 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 211 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY, WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND START TO PUSH
INLAND, REACHING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES RESIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE CIRCULATION COLLAPSES AND
ACTIVITY DRIFTS BACK WESTWARD AFTER DARK. A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN
IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH, LEADING TO
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PUT US BACK
INTO THE PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF
THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AND THEN EVENTUALLY INLAND AND OVER TO THE EAST
COAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS PATTERN THEN HOLDS
INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
SCATTERED STORMS WILL LINGER NEAR AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. A QUIET OVERNIGHT
IS EXPECTED, THEN A SIMILAR SETUP IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE MORNING BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AFTER DARK AS STORMS OVER
LAND SHIFT BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF. WINDS BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 90 78 90 / 30 60 20 40
FMY 75 92 76 92 / 40 40 30 60
GIF 74 92 75 93 / 50 60 30 70
SRQ 75 90 77 90 / 40 50 10 30
BKV 72 93 74 92 / 30 60 20 30
SPG 77 91 79 91 / 30 50 10 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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