056
FXUS62 KTBW 110042
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 815 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY
TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY FADES. HOWEVER, THERE
MAY BE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT LINGERS MOST OF THE NIGHT AS
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE BUT THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS TONIGHT OFFSHORE.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY, WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND START TO PUSH
INLAND, REACHING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL
BE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES RESIDE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE CIRCULATION COLLAPSES AND
ACTIVITY DRIFTS BACK WESTWARD AFTER DARK. A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN
IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH, LEADING TO
A MORE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL PUT US BACK
INTO THE PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF
THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AND THEN EVENTUALLY INLAND AND OVER TO THE EAST
COAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS PATTERN THEN HOLDS
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
LINGERING SHRA THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT
THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD BUT ANY PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
FROM AROUND 18Z-00Z SO ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY DURING PERIODS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE,
WINDS FALL TO LESS THAN 5 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
5-10 KTS TOMORROW AND SHIFT ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE IN
THE MORNING BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE TURNS WINDS ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE AFTER DARK AS STORMS OVER
LAND SHIFT BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF. WINDS BECOME WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 211 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 90 78 90 / 30 60 20 40
FMY 75 92 76 92 / 40 40 30 60
GIF 74 92 75 93 / 50 60 30 70
SRQ 75 90 77 90 / 40 50 10 30
BKV 72 93 74 92 / 30 60 20 30
SPG 77 91 79 91 / 30 50 10 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...GIARRATANA
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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