703
FXUS62 KTBW 111112
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
712 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 709 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
HAVE KEPT TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT EACH
SITE. SOME CONVECTION WILL LINGER A FEW HOURS PAST 00Z, THEN A
QUIET OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
JUST ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL MORNING ACROSS THE PENINSULA. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE STATE KEEPING VERY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY. PWAT VALUES STAY AROUND 2 IN.,
WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE LIFT SPONSORED BY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS OVER THE WATER WILL MOVE ONSHORE
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE WITH AREAS ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR HAVING
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
THE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT SOUTH ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW
VERY LIGHT AND SUPPORT CONVECTION BECOMING WIDESPREAD AS THE
WEST/EAST SEA BREEZES COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR AND MOVE EAST.
LONG TERM (SAT-WED)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ALLOWING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SETTLE
IN. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IN PLACE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS PATTERN KEEPS MOISTURE HIGH WITH
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY BUT BECOMING
WIDESPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH COASTAL
AREAS REMAINING AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MODEL GUIDANCE BRING A DISTURBANCE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD
THAT COULD POTENTIALLY BRING ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE
AREA. WE SHALL SEE IF THIS MATERIALIZES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
INLAND BUT WILL PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST LATER IN THE EVENING.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, SOME OF THE ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP EARLY
OVER THE WATERS AND PUSH INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND GRADUALLY BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS OUT OF FIRE DISTRICTS DURING THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 78 90 79 / 50 20 30 10
FMY 92 77 92 76 / 30 20 60 20
GIF 92 75 93 76 / 70 40 60 20
SRQ 90 77 90 78 / 40 10 30 10
BKV 92 73 92 76 / 60 10 30 0
SPG 90 79 90 79 / 40 20 30 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
PREVIOUS...DELERME
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