594
FXUS62 KTBW 111824
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
224 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY, WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND, REACHING JUST EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THERE WILL BE A
PRETTY TYPICAL SCATTERING OF STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, BUT
THIS AREA WILL BE WHERE THE BEST RAIN CHANCES RESIDE BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER DARK. TOMORROW IS MORE OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT SOUTH. THIS WILL GIVE US A MORE
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, MARKING A RETURN TO THE PATTERN OF EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE GULF THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AND THEN
EVENTUALLY INLAND AND OVER TO THE EAST COAST BY THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 02Z OR SO, THEN A QUIET OVERNIGHT
IS EXPECTED. FLOW SHIFTS TO ONSHORE FOR TOMORROW, WITH MOST STORMS
EXPECTED EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. WINDS BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 90 79 91 / 20 40 10 20
FMY 77 91 76 92 / 30 60 20 60
GIF 75 93 75 94 / 40 70 40 50
SRQ 77 90 78 91 / 10 30 10 20
BKV 74 92 76 93 / 20 30 10 20
SPG 79 90 79 92 / 20 30 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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