228
FXUS62 KTBW 121122
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
722 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. BEST CHANCES ARE AROUND MIDDAY FOR TAMPA BAY AREA SITES
AND A FEW HOURS LATER FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SITES AND KLAL.
GENERALLY, MOST ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION COMBINED WITH
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF SARASOTA. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING LATER TONIGHT WITH
SKIES BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FROM
THE WEST TODAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SHIFT HIGHEST POPS
TO THE INTERIOR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, AND WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS THEY PUSH INLAND DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. PCPW VALUES
WILL REMAIN AOA 2 INCHES WHICH WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL LOWER POPS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.
BY MID WEEK, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH OVER NORTH
FLORIDA WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NATURE
COAST. OTHERWISE, WEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH DAY. AS WEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE WARM GULF
WATERS, OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE HELD UP WITH
LOWS NEAR THE COAST LIKELY IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 CREATING
VERY MUGGY WARM CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WEAK GRADIENT WILL HOLD OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 79 91 79 / 20 10 20 10
FMY 91 76 92 77 / 60 20 50 20
GIF 92 75 94 76 / 70 40 50 30
SRQ 90 78 91 78 / 20 10 20 10
BKV 92 75 93 76 / 30 10 20 10
SPG 90 79 91 79 / 20 10 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
AVIATION...CARLISLE
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