156
FXUS62 KTBW 121738
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
138 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- ONSHORE FLOW, WITH THE BEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED
FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TODAY, WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MORE INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIMILAR SETUP IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HELPING TO DECREASE POPS A BIT, BUT THE OVERALL ONSHORE PATTERN
CONTINUES, SO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OVER INLAND AREAS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS WITHIN WEST FLOW.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES MORE OF THE SAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. A QUIET OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED, THEN A SIMILAR PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER LAND, BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE WATERS MAINLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. NO HEADLINES
ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
FMY 76 91 77 91 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 93 76 93 / 40 50 30 60
SRQ 78 91 78 91 / 10 20 10 20
BKV 75 93 76 92 / 10 20 10 10
SPG 79 92 80 91 / 10 10 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
CARLISLE
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