281
FXUS62 KTBW 122340
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
740 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 740 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100+ DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- ONSHORE FLOW, WITH THE BEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EXPECTED
FOR INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
REMAINING CONVECTION IS FOCUSED OVER INTERIOR C FL THIS EVENING
WITH SOME OUTFLOW GENERATED CONVECTION EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF
SWFL CLOSER THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW FROM C FL CONVECTION
IS PUSHING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF WCFL AND PARTS OF THE
NATURE COAST BUT THUS FAR HASN'T SUPPORTED MORE THAN A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASING STABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING WILL FAVOR DIMINISHING ACTIVITY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. EXISTING FORECAST GRIDS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS THEREFORE NO CHANGES
PLANNED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TODAY, WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MORE INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SIMILAR SETUP IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. SOME
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK,
HELPING TO DECREASE POPS A BIT, BUT THE OVERALL ONSHORE PATTERN
CONTINUES, SO THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OVER INLAND AREAS.
BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION STAYS WITHIN WEST FLOW.
THE REST OF NEXT WEEK FEATURES MORE OF THE SAME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TERMINALS GENERALLY VFR EARLY THIS EVENING, HOWEVER OUTFLOW
WORKING WESTWARD ACROSS W FL MAY SPARK ANOTHER BRIEF ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS THAT COULD
IMPACT CATEGORIES BRIEFLY BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING.
LIGHT FLOW AND VFR OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASING AND BECOMING
WESTERLY LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL GENERALLY EARLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON FOR
TPA/PIE/SRQ BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND, WHILE THE THREAT WILL EXIST
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR LAL AND SWFL
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER LAND, BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER THE WATERS MAINLY DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. NO HEADLINES
ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 20
FMY 76 91 77 91 / 20 40 20 50
GIF 75 93 76 93 / 40 50 30 60
SRQ 78 91 78 91 / 10 20 10 20
BKV 75 93 76 92 / 10 20 10 10
SPG 79 92 80 91 / 10 10 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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