241
FXUS62 KTBW 221220
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
820 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 806 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEK MAINLY INTERIOR AND SOUTH.
- FLOW SHIFT LATE WEEK THROUGH WEEKEND MAY FAVOR HIGHEST SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES SHIFTING TO COASTAL W FL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105+ DEGREES CONTINUE
AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING NORTH
OF A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE S GULF INTO THE W ATLANTIC, WITH LIGHT
SURFACE FLOW WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAPED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. FLOW SETUP WILL FAVOR A ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE W FL SEA BREEZE AS IT
PUSHES INLAND, INCREASING TO SCATTERED COVERAGE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING AS THE W AND E FL SEA BREEZES CONVERGE OVER THE
INTERIOR. HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-4, PARTICULARLY OVER S INTERIOR AND INLAND SWFL LOCATIONS.
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S COASTAL TO MID/SPOTTY UPPER 90S INTERIOR ALONG WITH HEAT
INDICES REACHING 105+ DEGREES.
GENERAL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE MAINLY OF THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED VARIETY AS PWATS OVER
THE AREA REMAIN IN THE 1.5-2 INCH RANGE. FLOW REMAINS GENERALLY
LIGHT ONSHORE/WESTERLY, INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE SEA
BREEZE, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COAST, CONTINUING TO FOCUS HIGHEST
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES OVER AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE INTERIOR ON THURSDAY AS
FLOW SHIFTS MORE SW/S, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARD GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS W FL
INCLUDING COASTAL AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP LOCALLY SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S COASTAL TO GENERALLY MID 90S INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH LOWS CONTINUING FROM THE MID 70S INLAND TO
LOWER 80S COASTAL, AND DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105+
DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW.
RATHER DRY PROFILE WITH WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF OUR
AIRPORTS DRY BUT A SHOWER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AT RSW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
GENERALLY PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WATERS. MOSTLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS, EXCEPT
SLIGHT AM SHOWER/STORM CHANCES OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS MID TO
LATE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY PM COASTAL SHOWER/STORM CHANCES AS FLOW
SHIFTS BACK EASTERLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND MINIMAL FIRE CONCERNS ASIDE FROM A FEW
AREAS OF HIGHER DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED, FAVORING AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARD COASTAL AREAS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 95 81 95 81 / 10 0 10 0
FMY 96 79 95 79 / 30 20 30 10
GIF 97 76 97 76 / 30 10 20 0
SRQ 94 80 94 79 / 10 0 10 0
BKV 96 76 95 77 / 10 0 0 0
SPG 94 81 94 81 / 10 0 0 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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