218
FXUS62 KTBW 221834
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
234 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 229 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEK MAINLY INTERIOR AND SOUTH.
- FLOW SHIFT LATE WEEK THROUGH WEEKEND MAY FAVOR HIGHEST SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES SHIFTING TO COASTAL W FL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105+ DEGREES CONTINUE
AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
RIDGING REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH FOR MUCH OF OUR WORK WEEK KEEPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE. WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE DRIER AIR THAT
FILTER INTO THE AREA YESTERDAY. OUR MORNING SOUNDING CAME IN WITH PW
AROUND 1.4 WHICH PUTS US AT AROUND THE 25 PERCENTILE FOR THIS
DATE. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN LOWER RAINSHOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE WHOLE STATE. WHATEVER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
INLAND AND ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS TREND OF LOWER PW AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY WE WILL START TO SEE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE THANKS TO
A STALLED OUT BOUNDARY IN SOUTH GEORGIA. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
POPS HOWEVER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN RESULTING IN MOST OF
THE THESE SHOWERS INLAND AND ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS FRONT WILL
LIFT NORTH ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL
START TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LOWER MOISTURE
AND KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES ON THE LOWER END FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS WE GO INTO OUR SUNDAY THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL BRING A NEUTRAL FLOW REGIME TO OUR FORECAST. THIS WILL
HELP TO BRING SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WILL REMAIN DRY BUT AREAS SLIGHTLY MORE INLAND
WILL PROBABLY SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AND MOVE FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. GREATEST CHANCE FOR IMPACTS WILL BE SWFL TERMINALS
BEFORE SHIFTING INLAND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WE WILL SEE MUCH OF THE SAME FOR THE FIRST HALF OF OUR WORK
WEEK WITH WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS. BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WINDS WILL TURN MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS ONLY
AROUND 5 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER WE ARE
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR MUCH OF
OUR WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 95 81 92 / 0 0 20 30
FMY 79 96 79 95 / 20 20 10 20
GIF 76 97 76 95 / 10 10 10 50
SRQ 79 94 80 93 / 0 10 10 10
BKV 75 95 77 94 / 0 0 30 40
SPG 81 94 81 92 / 0 0 10 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
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