988
FXUS62 KTBW 230711
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
311 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 309 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105+ DEGREES CONTINUE AREAWIDE.
- GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK MAINLY INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED
PREDOMINANT ONSHORE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
WITH PWAT VALUES TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 1.5-1.9 INCHES. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR THE HIGHEST RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES (20-50 PERCENT) OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA.
A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH, UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTH THROUGH
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN SUPPORT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
NEAR EASTERN TN/KY AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR
EASTERN PA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW
NEAR PA, SOUTHWESTWARD TO TN, THEN FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD TO LA. THIS
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY.
SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT WITH PWAT VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2-1.6
INCHES FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR EVEN LOWER RAIN CHANCES (20-40 PERCENT) IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT AND OVER THE INTERIOR.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH MOISTURE REBOUNDING TO
AROUND 1.6-2.1 INCHES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA
PRODUCING A NEUTRAL WIND FLOW ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE HOT TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-107 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
RELIEF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAINING QUITE
WARM AND MUGGY ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN ONSHORE WIND FLOW AROUND 5-10
KNOTS WILL BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING KEEPING MOST
OF THE WEATHER OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH RIDGING
OVER THE WATERS. MOSTLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS, WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MINIMAL FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED ASIDE FROM A FEW
AREAS OF HIGHER DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXPECTED, FAVORING AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 82 92 80 / 0 10 40 10
FMY 95 79 94 78 / 10 10 10 10
GIF 97 77 94 75 / 10 10 40 10
SRQ 93 81 92 79 / 10 10 20 10
BKV 95 77 94 73 / 0 30 40 10
SPG 93 81 92 80 / 0 10 30 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
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