944
FXUS62 KTBW 240002
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
802 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105+ DEGREES CONTINUE AREAWIDE.
- GENERALLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK MAINLY INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS INTO NORTH FLORIDA WED MORNING WITH ISOLATED TSRA AROUND TAMPA
BAY TERMINALS AFTER 14Z AND INTO THE AFTERNOON INTERIOR AREAS WHILE
LATE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE TSRA POSSIBLE IN SW FL TERMINALS AFT 19Z.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WE CONTINUE TO SEE DRYER AIR WITH OUR SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY KEEPING
SHOWERS CHANCES AT A MINIMUM. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MAINLY
INLAND AND ON THE EAST COAST. WE WILL SEE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSH INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND STALL ALONG I-4 WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT WILL BE VERY WEAK BUT COULD STILL HELP TO SPARK A FEW MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PWS WILL BE BACK TO AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY BUT THANKS TO RIDING
TO OUR SOUTH WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST STORM CHANCES OF THE
DAY IN THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY, AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO HEAD OUR WAY. THIS WILL BRING OUT
WINDS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY FINALLY BRINGING BETTER
STORM CHANCES TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO ALABAMA. AS IT DOES SO IT SHIFT OUR
WINDS MORE NORTHEASTERLY. THIS REGIME STILL FAVORS STORMS ON THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE ONLY BIG DIFFERENCE IS MORE OF THAT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG OR SOUTH OF I-4. AREAS NORTH OF I-4
TYPICALLY SEE DRIER AIR. BY NEXT MONDAY WE WILL BE SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NOW IN EASTERN TENNESSEE AND A
TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL BRING US A
MORE NEUTRAL FLOW REGIME WHICH WILL FAVOR STORMS MORE IN THE
INTERIOR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT AS WE END OUR WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT STAYING AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE EAST ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER WE ARE
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR MUCH OF
OUR WORK WEEK WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 92 80 93 / 10 40 10 20
FMY 78 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 40
GIF 77 94 75 95 / 10 50 10 60
SRQ 81 92 78 93 / 10 20 20 20
BKV 77 95 73 95 / 40 40 10 20
SPG 81 92 80 92 / 10 30 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...CLOSE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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