804
FXUS62 KTBW 241307
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
907 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES CONTINUE
AREAWIDE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK
MAINLY INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF RIDGES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH, UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, THEN ALONG NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FARTHER WESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. A FEW SHOWERS AND A STRAY STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ALONG THE NATURE COAST AND INTO THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
FARTHER SOUTH NEAR TAMPA BAY AND INTERIOR. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS, CLEARING OUT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT EAST OF FLORIDA.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND BRING A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND PUSH THEM
WESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS, HOPEFULLY BRINGING IN SOME RAINFALL RELIEF TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE HOT TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
RELIEF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAINING QUITE
WARM AND MUGGY ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 857 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
A WEAK BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF TAMPA WILL START TO PUSH SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME HI RES MODELS SHOWING A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS AS IT PASSES SO PUT A POP30 FOR BOTH TPA AND PIE. BEST
CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE INLAND SO HAVE VCTS FOR
LAL. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED, FAVORING AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 80 92 80 / 40 10 20 0
FMY 94 78 94 78 / 20 10 40 30
GIF 95 75 95 76 / 50 20 50 20
SRQ 93 79 93 79 / 20 10 20 10
BKV 95 74 95 74 / 40 10 30 0
SPG 92 80 92 81 / 30 10 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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