595
FXUS62 KTBW 241802
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
202 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES CONTINUE
AREAWIDE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK
MAINLY INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
A WEAK BOUNDARY NORTH OF I-4 IS HELPING TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS
DURING OUR EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. DOWN IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WE WILL BE SEEING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW STILL IN PLACE KEEPING STORMS MAINLY INLAND. AS WE HEAD INTO
OUR THURSDAY WE WILL SEE A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP STORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE EAST
COAST ONCE AGAIN.
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND RIDGING WILL START TO
SHIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL FINALLY BRING A MORE EASTERLY
FLOW IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD SEE SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AGAIN AND REMAIN
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF A
NEUTRAL FLOW INTO THE AREA. THIS FLOW TYPICALLY HAS THE AFTERNOON
STORMS DEVELOP INLAND BUT THEY TEND TO DRIFT TO THE WEST COAST IN
THE EVENING HOURS.
BY NEXT TUESDAY WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN PW OVER 2 INCHES AS FLOW
SWITCHING MORE EASTERLY ONCE AGAIN. IF THIS FORECAST REMAIN THE SAME
WE COULD SEE MORE OF A WIDESPREAD SHOWER CHANCES THAT DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY FLOW.
STORMS WILL BE DEVELOP MAINLY INLAND AND ALONG THE EAST COAST
TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORM MENTIONS IN BOTH LAL AND RSW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY AROUND 5
TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT AS WE END OUR WORK WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT STAYING AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AND OUT OF THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
SUMMERTIME HUMIDITY AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE HOWEVER WE ARE
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR MUCH OF
OUR WORK WEEK WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 80 92 80 / 40 10 20 0
FMY 94 78 94 78 / 20 10 40 30
GIF 95 75 95 76 / 50 20 50 20
SRQ 93 79 93 79 / 20 10 20 10
BKV 95 74 95 74 / 40 10 30 0
SPG 92 80 92 81 / 30 10 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CARLISLE
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