946
FXUS62 KTBW 250715
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 DEGREES CONTINUE
AREAWIDE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK
MAINLY INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS
FEATURE LIES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY
STORM POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS BOUNDARY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, COMBINED
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.9 INCHES WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AS BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA RIDGES WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE
REGIONWIDE.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD
AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND BRING A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND PUSH THEM WESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, HOPEFULLY
BRINGING IN SOME RAINFALL DEFICIT RELIEF TO THE DRY CONDITIONS.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE HOT TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-107 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH
RELIEF EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAINING QUITE
WARM AND MUGGY ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
SOME SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS HAVE BEEN FIRING OFF OF TAMPA BAY EARLY
THIS MORNING. WILL HOLD VCSH FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ THROUGH THE MORNING,
THEN VCTS AFTER 18Z. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL, SO WILL HOLD VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING 10 KNOTS
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS, PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 313 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 80 94 80 / 20 10 40 10
FMY 93 77 95 78 / 50 20 50 40
GIF 94 75 95 76 / 50 40 60 30
SRQ 93 78 94 79 / 30 10 30 10
BKV 95 74 95 74 / 30 10 50 10
SPG 92 80 94 81 / 20 10 30 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page