183
FXUS62 KTBW 260718
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
318 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 DEGREES CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ALONG THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA LINE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA RIDGING WESTWARD. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WASHES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
BERMUDA RIDGES WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7 -
2.0 INCHES WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE REGIONWIDE.
BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTHWARD AND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND BRING A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND PUSH THEM WESTWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. SOME BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THIS WILL
HOPEFULLY BRING IN SOME RAINFALL DEFICIT RELIEF TO THE DRY
CONDITIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40-70 PERCENT AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS PREVAILING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING 100-107 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH RELIEF EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAINING QUITE WARM AND MUGGY
ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH THE
HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND KLAL, AND OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND KRSW, KFMY, AND KPGD. WILL COVER THIS WITH
VCTS AND TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 18-00Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
OUTSIDE OF A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, PLEASANT BOATING
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 79 93 79 / 40 20 40 20
FMY 95 77 95 77 / 40 30 60 30
GIF 95 76 95 76 / 50 40 60 30
SRQ 94 78 94 78 / 30 10 40 20
BKV 95 73 95 73 / 40 10 30 10
SPG 93 80 94 80 / 30 10 40 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
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