641
FXUS62 KTBW 270000
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 DEGREES CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
LIGHT SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FLOW ALLOWED FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, WITH WEAK STEERING FLOW KEEPING STORM MOTION SLOW. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WERE ABLE TO PRODUCE STRONG UPDRAFTS,
RESULTING IN LARGE HAIL CORES ALOFT BEING VISIBLE ON RADAR. WITH
THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING, THESE STORMS ARE QUICKLY WINDING DOWN,
ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THOUGH AROUND
MIDNIGHT, WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE.
A FEW FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS TO KEEP UP WITH RADAR TRENDS, GENERALLY BRINGING
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE WEST AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COME BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK, AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A FEW STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO LINGER ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND
COULD CAUSE BRIEF FLIGHT CATEGORY DISRUPTIONS THROUGH AROUND 02Z
THIS EVENING. MAINLY RAIN FREE AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH THEN HOLD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR AROUND KLAL, AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND
KPGD, KFMY, AND KRSW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
MARINE CONDITIONS REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE ISOLATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS.
WINDS REMAIN UNDER 10KTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 2 FT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH AND
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 15MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 93 79 93 / 30 40 20 40
FMY 77 95 77 95 / 30 50 40 60
GIF 76 95 76 95 / 20 60 30 40
SRQ 78 94 78 94 / 30 40 20 50
BKV 73 95 73 96 / 20 30 10 30
SPG 80 94 80 94 / 30 30 20 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLEMING
MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
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