741
FXUS62 KTBW 271337
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
937 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 DEGREES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
MORNING FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES NEEDED. LIGHT/VARIABLE
FLOW THIS MORNING UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL GIVE WAY TO
ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND LIGHT SE/E
FLOW INLAND LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH DEVELOPING
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGHEST CHANCES LOOK
TO FOCUS FROM SWFL NORTHWARD ACROSS W FL AND INTERIOR LOCATIONS
WHERE SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR BERMUDA
RIDGES WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS PATTERN
WILL FAVOR A PREDOMINANT EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW OVER THE REGION.
THIS FLOW COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.7 - 2.2 INCHES WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOME BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, POSSIBLE HAIL
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN
VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION WITH SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS PREVAILING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, STRONG UPPER
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY AS WELL AS CONTINUED HEAT AND HUMIDITY. DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING 100-107 DEGREES
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN QUITE WARM AND MUGGY
ONLY DIPPING INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 930 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
LIGHT/VARIABLE MORNING FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE/W ACROSS COASTAL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. SH/TSRA DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND
LINGER INTO EVENING, ASSOCIATED MVFR/LCL IFR IMPACTS MOST LIKELY
AT LAL AND SWFL TERMINALS. ACTIVITY DIMINISHES LATE EVENING WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR
LESS. THE ONLY MARINE IMPACT EXPECTED WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 79 93 81 / 40 10 50 10
FMY 95 77 94 78 / 60 40 40 20
GIF 95 76 95 77 / 70 40 50 20
SRQ 94 78 94 79 / 30 20 40 10
BKV 96 73 96 75 / 30 10 30 10
SPG 94 80 94 81 / 30 10 40 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...WYNN
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