260
FXUS62 KTBW 271802
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
202 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 DEGREES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOCUSING
OVER AREAS FROM SWFL THROUGH W FL ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGHEST CHANCES ANTICIPATED FROM AROUND THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
MORNING SOUNDING SAMPLED NEAR-AVERAGE PWAT OF 1.85 INCHES ALONG
WITH S/SE WINDS BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE SFC-3/6KM LAYERS, INDICATING
LIKELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS BUT ANY FLOODING/PONDING THREAT LIKELY
LIMITED TO THE HEAVIEST LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE. WEAK SHEAR AND NEAR-AVERAGE 500 MB TEMPS AROUND 7
DEG C SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ALTHOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST AND
SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S COASTAL AND LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND BEFORE BEING TEMPERED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
CONUS PATTERN ALOFT AMPLIFIES NOTABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WITH A
DEEP W U.S. TROUGH/STRONG E U.S. RIDGE SETUP TAKING SHAPE, WHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE E SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND STALLS OVER THE
SRN E SEABOARD/N GULF COAST. WHILE PWATS DON'T APPRECIABLY CHANGE
OVER THE AREA, BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO W/NW ON
MONDAY AND GRADUALLY VEERS TO E/NE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO SHIFT TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS ON
MON-TUE BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK/REMNANT BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, WITH NHC
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WITH A 20%
DEVELOPMENT CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DEEP LAYER E TO E/SE FLOW SETTLES IN OVER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER W FL, HIGHEST CHANCES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
WITH MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER/MID 100S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SH/TSRA HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NEAR TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, WITH ASSOCIATED
MVFR/LCL IFR IMPACTS MOST LIKELY AT LAL AND SWFL TERMINALS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ACTIVITY INITIALLY DIMINISHES
ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS EARLY EVENING, LINGERING A FEW
HOURS LONGER PERHAPS INTO LATE EVENING FOR SWFL TERMINALS AS
OUTFLOW PUSHES CONVECTION BACK TOWARD THE COAST. WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT/VARIABLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. SHOWERS AND STORMS PRODUCING
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
AMPLE MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN RHS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. DAILY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY ERRATIC AND
GUSTY WINDS, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE CONCERNS EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 93 81 93 / 10 50 10 50
FMY 77 94 78 96 / 40 40 20 20
GIF 76 95 77 95 / 40 50 20 50
SRQ 78 94 79 94 / 20 40 10 40
BKV 73 96 75 96 / 10 30 10 50
SPG 80 94 81 94 / 10 40 10 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
HURT
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