041
FXUS62 KTBW 280059
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
859 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 DEGREES CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS EVENING WITH SOME
LINGERING RAIN FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
TURN BACK TO THE SE OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SW FL IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST UPDATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT PERSIST OVER THE AREA WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOCUSING
OVER AREAS FROM SWFL THROUGH W FL ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. HIGHEST CHANCES ANTICIPATED FROM AROUND THE
I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD AND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR.
MORNING SOUNDING SAMPLED NEAR-AVERAGE PWAT OF 1.85 INCHES ALONG
WITH S/SE WINDS BELOW 5 KNOTS IN THE SFC-3/6KM LAYERS, INDICATING
LIKELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS BUT ANY FLOODING/PONDING THREAT LIKELY
LIMITED TO THE HEAVIEST LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE LACK OF
DEEPER MOISTURE. WEAK SHEAR AND NEAR-AVERAGE 500 MB TEMPS AROUND 7
DEG C SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ALTHOUGH A STRONG WIND GUST AND
SMALL HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S COASTAL AND LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND BEFORE BEING TEMPERED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
CONUS PATTERN ALOFT AMPLIFIES NOTABLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WITH A
DEEP W U.S. TROUGH/STRONG E U.S. RIDGE SETUP TAKING SHAPE, WHILE
THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH ACROSS THE E SEABOARD IN RESPONSE TO
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND STALLS OVER THE
SRN E SEABOARD/N GULF COAST. WHILE PWATS DON'T APPRECIABLY CHANGE
OVER THE AREA, BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO W/NW ON
MONDAY AND GRADUALLY VEERS TO E/NE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO SHIFT TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS ON
MON-TUE BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE WEAK/REMNANT BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK MAY POSE A LOW RISK OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, WITH NHC
CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WITH A 20%
DEVELOPMENT CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DEEP LAYER E TO E/SE FLOW SETTLES IN OVER THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK WITH TYPICAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER W FL, HIGHEST CHANCES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S,
WITH MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER/MID 100S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
NORTHERN TERMINALS ARE CLEAR OF CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE
EVENING, BUT LINGERING RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDER ARE STILL IN
PLACE FROM SRQ SOUTH AND INCLUDING LAL. THESE SHOULD CLEAR BY 02Z,
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND SKIES CLEARING. SEA BREEZE KICKS
BACK IN AROUND 17-19Z WITH STORM CHANCES GENERALLY 18-24Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED OFFSHORE OF THE SW FL COAST, OTHERWISE
PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE SEA BREEZE TAKING OVER IN THE AFTERNOON AND SOME LOW
CHANCES OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZE CONVECTION PUSHING
OFFSHORE AND CAUSING LOCALLY HIGH WINDS AND SEAS. NO CHANGES FOR
THE EVENING UPDATE. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 94 80 93 / 20 40 10 60
FMY 77 95 78 96 / 50 50 20 20
GIF 76 95 76 96 / 40 50 20 70
SRQ 78 94 79 94 / 30 40 20 50
BKV 74 96 75 96 / 10 30 10 50
SPG 80 94 81 94 / 20 30 10 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 1
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HUBBARD
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...DAVIS
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