952
FXUS62 KTBW 281412
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1012 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 DEGREES CONTINUE
THIS WEEK.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
NO CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
EXPECTED SHOWERS AND STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOPING BY AROUND MIDDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOCAL SEA BREEZES PUSH
INLAND. PER THE MORNING SOUNDING, SFC-3KM WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
E/SE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO S/SE 24 HOURS AGO AND REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT. THIS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS, AGAIN LIKELY TO FOCUS FROM SWFL NORTHWARD ACROSS W FL
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SETUP OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING
THE WEEK. MEANWHILE NEAR THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER
THE REGION INTO MONDAY THEN A WEAKENING COOL FRONT DRIFTS INTO
NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WASHES OUT ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN STATES DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
FOR TODAY, THE OVERALL FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP AROUND
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO MOVE
INLAND BECOMING MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVER INLAND AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTFLOW WILL PUSH
BACK TOWARD THE WEST COAST DURING THE EVENING AND COULD SEE A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
MOVING OUT INTO THE GULF WATERS.
MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH COULD LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HERE, BUT NOT ELIMINATE THE CHANCE.
DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY THIS
MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTH SOME WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FROM AROUND
THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE OVERALL FLOW WILL BE RATHER
LIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING, THE SEA BREEZES, AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY MOVING OUT INTO THE GULF
WATERS EACH NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE FROM
AROUND THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO THE MID 90S
INLAND AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
VFR TO CONTINUE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING FOLLOWED BY DEVELOPING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/LCL IFR VSBYS/CIGS.
CONVECTION LIKELY TO INITIATE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON LINGERING
INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH OUTFLOW FROM DIMINISHING INTERIOR
CONVECTION LIKELY TO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH LATE
EVENING SPAWNING A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BEFORE DIMINISHING.
WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD, LGT/VRB
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
PLEASANT BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. THE ONLY MARINE
HAZARD WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS WITH SUSTAINED 20 FOOT WINDS LESS THAN 15 MPH.
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
WHICH COULD CAUSE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, OTHERWISE THERE ARE NO
OTHER SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 81 94 82 / 30 10 40 20
FMY 95 78 96 79 / 50 30 10 10
GIF 95 77 96 77 / 50 30 50 20
SRQ 94 79 94 80 / 30 20 30 10
BKV 96 76 97 76 / 30 10 30 20
SPG 94 81 94 82 / 30 10 30 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 1
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CLOSE
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