872
FXUS62 KTBW 171058
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
658 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.
- A LOW, 20 PERCENT, CHANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMATION
IN THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH 7 DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING AS FAR AS TIMING FOR RAIN AND STORMS.
STORMS CONTINUE TO POP UP NEAR KTPA AND KPIE NOW, BUT THEN EXPECT
A LULL IN ACTIVITY UNTIL AROUND 17/18Z WHEN ANOTHER ROUND IS
FORECAST TO IMPACT THAT AREA. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A TEMPO GROUP DURING THIS TIME, BUT IT WAS CLOSE. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE TAMPA BAY REGION THIS EVENING. KLAL WILL
SEE THE BEST STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP THERE. FOR THE OTHERS, STORMS COULD BE NEARBY THIS
MORNING, THEN MOST SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
UPPER TUTT AND SURFACE EASTERLY WAVE WE'VE BEEN DISCUSSING FOR A
WEEK NOW ARE BOTH FINALLY MOVING FROM THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE SE
GULF AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MULTI LAYER ANALYSIS EARLY
THIS MORNING. W CENTRAL FL IS EXPECTED TO BE ON MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH EXTRA UPPER ENERGY TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A SURFACE LOW ALSO TRIES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AREA. THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASED HIGHER CHANCES OF BENEFICIAL RAIN.
RADAR AND HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW COASTAL CONVERGENT
CONVECTION FROM AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA INTO THE SUNCOAST
ONGOING TO BECOME ENHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DIURNAL HEATING AND OUTFLOW AND SEABREEZE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER TUTT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, EVENTUALLY
OPENING UP AND LIFTING THE ENTIRE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD. THIS AREA
CONTINUES TO BE MARKED WITH A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT BY THE NHC AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
AGAIN REGARDLESS OF EXACT DETAILS, THESE FEATURES WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WAVES OF
SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED PERIODICALLY THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK. AS
OF NOW, THE MOST LIKELY RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE
6-8 INCHES AT THE COAST, TAPERING OFF AS YOU HEAD INLAND. OVERALL,
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH MORE SCATTERED STORMS ON THE OTHER DAYS.
MARINE
A TROPICAL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY
HIGHER IN OR NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 78 90 79 / 70 50 60 60
FMY 92 77 91 78 / 60 30 40 30
GIF 93 74 93 76 / 70 30 70 20
SRQ 91 77 90 78 / 70 60 60 70
BKV 93 72 92 73 / 70 50 70 50
SPG 90 79 89 79 / 70 60 60 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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