941
FXUS62 KTBW 171830
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
230 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.
- A LOW, 30 PERCENT, CHANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMATION IN
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE CONTINUE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF/WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CURRENT
RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION, GENERALLY MOVING
NORTHWEST. FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DIE DOWN OVER LAND, WITH STORMS CONTINUING OVER THE GULF
AS A SURFACE LOW STARTS TO FORM. THE UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS EXPECTED PERIODICALLY. THESE WILL BRING POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS AT JUST ABOUT ANY
TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST AT THE COAST, WITH
TOTALS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UP TO AROUND 6 INCHES. SOME SPOTS
COULD CERTAINLY SEE MORE THAN THAT AND ANY TRAINING STORMS COULD
BRING A RISK OF NUISANCE OR MINOR FLOODING. ON THE FLIP SIDE OF ALL
THIS, THERE IS ALSO A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE WAVES OF
RAINFALL COULD FORM A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AND COULD ACTUALLY END UP
MISSING THE COAST OR AT LEAST DUMPING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
WATER. DEFINITELY A TRICKY FORECAST.
THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY LIFTS OUT AND DIMINISHES MID-WEEK, WITH THE
SURFACE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING BACK OVER THE REGION EVEN AS
TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RAIN CHANCES GO BACK TO
MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN UNTIL A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS INTO NORTH
FLORIDA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER NEAR KTPA AND KPIE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY SHIFTING
NORTHWESTWARD AND OTHER SITES REMAIN RAIN-FREE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE LOWER CHANCES, THOUGH
THE FORECAST REMAINS A TOUGH ONE AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN COULD
COME EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
A TROPICAL WAVE SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW TODAY
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WAVES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED PERIODICALLY, WITH HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
LIKELY IN OR NEAR STORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. DEEPER MOISTURE AND WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING POSSIBLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 89 78 89 / 60 50 60 70
FMY 77 91 78 92 / 40 60 50 50
GIF 74 93 75 92 / 30 50 20 70
SRQ 76 90 78 90 / 60 60 70 80
BKV 72 92 73 91 / 40 60 60 90
SPG 78 88 79 88 / 70 60 70 80
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 6
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...
DECISION SUPPORT...
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...
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