309
FXUS62 KTBW 180517
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
117 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.
- THERE IS A LOW, 30 PERCENT, CHANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING IN THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF
AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS. THERE IS NO SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS POINT. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS THIS SYSTEM TAGGED WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY (30 PERCENT) OF DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE
MAIN IMPACT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND SUNDAY WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 3 TO 4 AM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE
MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY AND SOUTH...AND ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ONSHORE AROUND SUNRISE. THIS IS A RATHER
COMPLEX SITUATION AS THERE ARE NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES THAT LIE ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND NEAR SHORE WATERS AS A RESULT OF
YESTERDAYS CONVECTION, WHICH COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. IN FACT, A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE CHARLOTTE COUNTY
COAST. ALSO, GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE NUMEROUS REMNANT BOUNDARIES,
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS MAINLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ALSO, IF THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM RETROGRADES A BIT FURTHER
WEST ON SATURDAY, THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION LATER TODAY COULD
REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH ONLY THE EASTERN EDGE OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP TO PUSH
OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...WITH REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY AGAIN LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM ABOUT VENICE AND NORTH. AGAIN, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES NORTH OF
ABOUT SARASOTA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS.
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/DYNAMICS OF
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. RELATIVELY HIGH POPS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST ACROSS THE NATURE COAST DUE TO SOUTHWEST ONSHORE BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW...BEING IN THE REGION OF BEST AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...AND POTENTIAL LIFT FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE EXITED THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST BY MID
WEEK WITH SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE SOUTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD DECREASE POPS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
PATCHY MVFR CIGS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT 020-025 VCNTY ALL
TERMINALS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
MOVE LOCALLY ONSHORE. INITIALLY, THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE AT SRQ/PGD/RSW/FMY AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LCL MVFR CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
PUSH NORTH AND MAY IMPACT PIE/TPA DURING THE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT LAL
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE WEST OF LAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE WATERS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WINDS, ROUGH SEAS,
AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING. THE GRADIENT MAY INCREASE A
BIT OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
CAUTIONARY LEVELS ATTM. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1236 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 89 78 90 80 / 70 60 60 60
FMY 90 78 92 79 / 60 30 40 30
GIF 93 75 94 77 / 40 20 50 20
SRQ 90 78 91 79 / 70 60 60 60
BKV 92 73 91 74 / 70 40 60 40
SPG 88 79 89 80 / 70 70 70 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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