123
FXUS62 KTBW 181753
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
153 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.
- THERE IS A LOW, 30 PERCENT, CHANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING IN THE EASTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE MID LEVEL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE HURRICANE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DISTURBANCE WHICH CURRENTLY HAS A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND 40 PERCENT CHANCE
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TODAY HAS CONSISTED OF MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS
WITH VERY LIGHTNING AND ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF MORE THAN 25 MPH.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
AFTERNOON CONTINUES. SOME AREAS TODAY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
BE CAUTIOUS WHEN OUT AND ABOUT AS THE LOCALIZED RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADS. TOMORROW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF THE COAST MOVING
ONSHORE EARLY MORNING. THOUGH INLAND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY DRIFT NNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RAIN CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION FURTHER NORTH IN THE CWA. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST AS WE TRANSITION INTO NEXT WEEK.
MUCH STILL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF MOVES AND HOW
LONG IT TAKES IT TO DO SO. HOWEVER, BY MIDWEEK, THE FORECAST
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS THE GULF
DISTURBANCE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE LESS INFLUENCE HERE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN AREAS NOT AFFECTED BY SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THOUGH SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM ONSHORE FROM THE GULF,
MOST HAVE MOSTLY BEEN LIGHT WITH LITTLE IMPACT TO VISIBILITY OR
CEILINGS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
A LULL LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE IN THE GULF. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING NEAR STORMS. WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY REACHING CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 88 79 89 / 40 60 40 70
FMY 78 91 79 91 / 30 50 30 50
GIF 75 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 40
SRQ 77 89 79 90 / 60 60 50 70
BKV 73 90 74 91 / 30 60 40 70
SPG 79 87 79 88 / 50 60 50 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
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