629
FXUS62 KTBW 190005
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
LIKELY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM, 50 PERCENT, CHANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
INVEST 91L IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM
THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA. FOR TONIGHT WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, THEN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING EXPECT MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AFFECTING THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM TAMPA
BAY SOUTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DRIFTING NORTH AND INLAND ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
REST OF SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE COAST
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS NEAR THE COAST FROM SRQ SOUTHWARD LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE NORTH AND INLAND DURING
THE REST OF SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHEAST WINDS
4 TO 8 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES AS THE MID LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE IN THE EASTERN GULF. THE HURRICANE CENTER
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DISTURBANCE WHICH CURRENTLY HAS A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. TODAY HAS CONSISTED OF MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS WITH VERY LIGHTNING AND ONLY OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF MORE THAN
25 MPH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES. SOME AREAS TODAY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING.
BE CAUTIOUS WHEN OUT AND ABOUT AS THE LOCALIZED RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO PONDING ON ROADS. TOMORROW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE
VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF THE COAST MOVING
ONSHORE EARLY MORNING. THOUGH INLAND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY DRIFT NNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS RAIN CHANCES WILL
TRANSITION FURTHER NORTH IN THE CWA. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS IN THE OVERALL FORECAST AS WE TRANSITION INTO NEXT WEEK.
MUCH STILL DEPENDS ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF MOVES AND HOW
LONG IT TAKES IT TO DO SO. HOWEVER, BY MIDWEEK, THE FORECAST
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN AS THE GULF
DISTURBANCE MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO HAVE LESS INFLUENCE HERE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
LESS THAN IDEAL MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE DISTURBANCE
CONTINUES TO ROTATE IN THE GULF. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY WITH WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING NEAR STORMS. WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON LIKELY REACHING CAUTIONARY TO ADVISORY
LEVELS. ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE AREA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 88 79 89 / 40 60 40 70
FMY 78 91 79 91 / 30 50 30 50
GIF 75 93 76 93 / 30 40 20 40
SRQ 77 89 79 90 / 60 60 50 70
BKV 73 90 74 91 / 30 60 40 70
SPG 79 87 79 88 / 50 60 50 70
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT
TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ANDERSON
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