503
FXUS62 KTBW 191129
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
729 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
LIKELY.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE, 60 PERCENT, OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FORMING IN THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 723 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ROTATING IN THE GULF, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
COAST. PERIODS OF BELOW VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY ANYTIME
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AT MOST SITES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO ADVECT TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS THIS
SYSTEM TAGGED WITH A MEDIUM PROBABILITY (60 PERCENT) OF
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACT EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WILL BE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING AREAS
MAY OCCUR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS ATTM AND ARE LIFTING NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. A FEW STORMS WERE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE
INTERIOR. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND WILL ADVECT LOCALLY ONSHORE. TRAINING OF CELLS IS POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS/FLOODING.
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL AGAIN ADVECT LOCALLY ONSHORE IN THE
PERSISTENT DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY IS A BIT
MORE COMPLEX AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/STRENGTH OF
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED AT SOME POINT TO RETROGRADE (MOVE WEST
OR NORTHWEST) AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND
GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE ACTUAL TIMING OF THAT REMAINS
IN DOUBT...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL OCCUR LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT.
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID WEEK WHICH SHOULD DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 86 79 90 81 / 60 50 70 30
FMY 89 79 92 79 / 60 40 50 20
GIF 92 76 94 78 / 60 20 40 10
SRQ 87 79 91 79 / 70 60 70 40
BKV 88 74 92 75 / 60 40 70 20
SPG 87 79 89 81 / 70 60 70 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...
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