622
FXUS62 KTBW 191840
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF AND IS
CURRENTLY DRIFTING NNW.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
INVEST 92 IN THE GULF HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 2. THOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS VERY LIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BECOME MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT MORE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE MAKING. THIS WILL PULL TD2
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
TOMORROW AS TD2 ALSO DRIFTS FURTHER NW.
AS TD2 CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM FLORIDA, DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN. BY MID WEEK, RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIMITED. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES TO REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
AS DISCUSSED THIS MORNING, PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
DROP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. MOST SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY QUIET OVERNIGHT BEFORE RAMPING BACK UP TOMORROW MORNING.
COVERAGE SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TOMORROW, SOUTHERN
SITES LIKE RSW AND FMY MAY HAVE LESS IMPACTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE GULF LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AMPLE MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY FROM
FLORIDA, DRY AIR WILL FILTER. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 88 80 90 / 60 60 30 40
FMY 79 90 79 92 / 40 50 20 20
GIF 76 90 77 93 / 20 60 10 20
SRQ 79 87 79 90 / 70 70 40 40
BKV 74 88 75 91 / 40 60 20 30
SPG 79 87 80 89 / 70 70 40 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...CARLISLE
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