759
FXUS62 KTBW 200000
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF AND IS
CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY, BUT A VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
LIKELY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TD#2 REMAINS WELL OFF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND IT. A DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY AND WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE CONVECTION MOVE NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT LATER
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING EXPECT A PATTERN SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH
MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN GULF MOVING ONSHORE AFFECTING AREAS NEAR THE
COAST, THEN DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS SETTING UP. OVERALL THE
FORECAST LOOKS OK AT THIS TIME WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT, THEN MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
GULF MOVING ONSHORE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND DEVELOP
FURTHER INLAND LATE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MVFR/LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE CONVECTION, OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS AT
7 TO 13 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO
13 TO 18 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THE CONVECTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
INVEST 91L IN THE GULF HAS OFFICIALLY BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 2. THOUGH THE STEERING FLOW IS VERY LIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BECOME MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT MORE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE MAKING. THIS WILL PULL TD2
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SHOWERS AND
STORMS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND TOMORROW. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH
TOMORROW AS TD2 ALSO DRIFTS FURTHER NW.
AS TD2 CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM FLORIDA, DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
FILTER IN. BY MID WEEK, RAIN CHANCES BECOME LIMITED. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO JUMP BACK UP TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT
INDICES TO REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 CONTINUES TO SPIN IN THE GULF LEADING TO
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL AS AMPLE MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 CONTINUES TO DRIFT AWAY FROM
FLORIDA, DRY AIR WILL FILTER. HOWEVER RH VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 79 88 80 90 / 60 60 30 40
FMY 79 90 79 92 / 40 50 20 20
GIF 76 90 77 93 / 20 60 10 20
SRQ 79 87 79 90 / 70 70 40 40
BKV 74 88 75 91 / 40 60 20 30
SPG 79 87 80 89 / 70 70 40 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION...CLOSE
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ANDERSON
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