321
FXUS62 KTBW 200452
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1252 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN GULF AND IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST, WHICH IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AWAY FROM
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 WHICH IS CENTERED ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED TO MOVE LOCALLY
ONSHORE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE RELATIVELY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL
CREATE STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY EXITS WEST OF THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BANDS OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL EDGE WEST OFF THE MAINLAND AND WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS...AS DRIER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND LOWERS THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. THE DECREASED CLOUD COVER/RAIN WILL ALSO ALLOW
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMALS FOR MID/LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT TPA/PIE/SRQ THROUGH MONDAY. SOME CLEARING
IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT AT PGD/FMY/RSW/LAL, BEFORE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS OCCURS AGAIN ON MONDAY. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CREATE BRIEF
LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT PIE/SRQ/PGD/RSW/FMY...AND AT
ALL TERMINALS ON LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST OF THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 90 80 91 80 / 70 40 40 10
FMY 92 79 94 78 / 60 20 20 10
GIF 94 77 95 76 / 50 10 20 0
SRQ 91 79 92 79 / 80 40 30 10
BKV 92 75 94 74 / 70 30 30 10
SPG 88 80 90 81 / 80 40 40 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20
NM-WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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