013
FXUS62 KTBW 201834
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
234 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION #2 IN THE EASTERN GULF IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AWAY FROM THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED SOME TIME TOMORROW.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
CHURNS IN THE EASTERN GULF. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY HAVE
ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE EXTRA HEATING WHICH HAS LED TO SOME OF THE
CURRENT AFTERNOON THUDNERSTORMS TO BE MORE ROBUST. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN COMMON AS THE STORMS MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. TD2 WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTWARD SOMETIME TOMORROW. WITH
THE TURN TAKING TD2 FURTHER FROM FLORIDA WEST COAST, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND NORTH OF
I4 TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, DRY AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WHICH WILL
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY,
WITH THE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. MANY STORMS OBSERVED SO FAR HAVE BEEN GUSTY WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. GUSTY, SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED TOMORROW, THOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HIGH SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CLEAR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 89 80 92 / 40 30 10 10
FMY 79 92 77 92 / 20 10 10 20
GIF 77 93 75 95 / 10 30 10 10
SRQ 80 91 79 91 / 40 30 10 10
BKV 76 93 74 94 / 20 30 10 10
SPG 80 89 80 90 / 50 40 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...PEARCE
DECISION SUPPORT...HUBBARD
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