570
FXUS62 KTBW 210009
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
809 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING INTO TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DIURNAL BANDS OF FAST
MOVING GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS RACING OVER THE AREA,
WRAPPING INTO THE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING GULF TROPICAL SYSTEM. TBW
18Z-00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU 27K FT THAT HELPED PRODUCED NUMEROUS
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40-50 MPH WITH MANY LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN QUITE LOW WITH THE
FAST MOVING CELLS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WHILE SLOWLY PULLING OFF COAST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL ADJUST GRIDS SLIGHTLY BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS AND HI REZ GUIDANCE.
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE E GULF IS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS WITH SEAS OVER 7 FEET AND WINDS OVER 20 KTS. ALSO
BREAKING WAVES ARE PRODUCING A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH TUESDAY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2
CHURNS IN THE EASTERN GULF. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY HAVE
ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE EXTRA HEATING WHICH HAS LED TO SOME OF THE
CURRENT AFTERNOON THUDNERSTORMS TO BE MORE ROBUST. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAVE BEEN COMMON AS THE STORMS MOVE
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH. TD2 WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST TODAY BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTWARD SOMETIME TOMORROW. WITH
THE TURN TAKING TD2 FURTHER FROM FLORIDA WEST COAST, SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND NORTH OF
I4 TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, DRY AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN WHICH WILL
LIMIT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. UNFORTUNATELY,
WITH THE LIMITED RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
BANDS OF FAST MOVING GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO WANE AFT 03Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
SHUD DEV TUE AROUND 15Z NEAR THE COAST AROUND TAMPA BAY AREA
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS RETURNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HIGH SEAS EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CLEAR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 89 80 92 / 40 30 10 10
FMY 79 92 77 92 / 20 10 10 20
GIF 77 93 75 95 / 10 30 10 10
SRQ 80 91 79 91 / 40 30 10 10
BKV 76 93 74 94 / 20 30 10 10
SPG 80 89 80 90 / 50 40 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE
RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...CLOSE
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