497
FXUS62 KTBW 211208
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
808 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
TODAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH TODAY.
- BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES
SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW
WEST NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
CIRCULATION OF BERTHA WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. NARROW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND PUSH LOCALLY
ONSHORE. THE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF
AROUND 40 MPH, MAINLY NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. THE GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS OVER THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.
AS BERTHA GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, AND THE BANDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY PULL
WEST COMPLETELY AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEFORE FINALLY EXITING THE
ENTIRE REGION.
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION MID/LATE WEEK WHICH
WILL ACT TO MINIMIZE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS, AND
INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC
NORMS. EAST/SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL OCCUR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT WILL FLIP OVER THE WEEKEND BECOMING
ONSHORE WITH HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 807 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AS TS BERTHA SLOWLY START TO MOVE AWAY DRIER AIR WILL START TO
FILTER IN. BEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE IN THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST OF WEST CENTRAL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY
OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUST TOPPING OUT AROUND 30 KTS FOR OUR
COASTAL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, AND HIGH SEAS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
CREATE HIGH DISPERSIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 80 92 80 / 40 10 10 0
FMY 94 77 94 77 / 10 10 20 20
GIF 95 75 96 76 / 30 10 20 10
SRQ 92 78 93 78 / 30 0 10 10
BKV 94 74 95 74 / 40 10 10 0
SPG 90 80 91 80 / 50 10 10 0
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON
SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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