139
FXUS62 KTBW 211756
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
156 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
TODAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE CHOPPY SEAS THROUGH TODAY.
- BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS SLOWLY PUSHING WEST AND AWAY FROM WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. AS IT DOES SO WE WILL SOME DRIER AIR FILTER INTO
THE AREA. THIS MORNING SOUNDING IS ALREADY SHOWING PW AROUND 1.6.
THIS LOWER MOISTURE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
GIVING US LOWER RAINSHOWER CHANCES. BERTHA MOVING AWAY WILL ALSO
START TO DECREASE OUR WINDS WITH TODAY BEING THE LAST DAY WE SEE
GRADIENT WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT GUST RANGE.
BY FRIDAY WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE DOWN IN SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-4 TO END OUR WORK WEEK.
SATURDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY FOR US AS THE RIDGE STARTS HEADING
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL GIVE US A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BUT POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH BRINGING A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY INLAND AND ALONG THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DROPPING AFTER SUNSET. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WE SEE THE REST
OF THE DAY WILL BE INLAND WITH THE ONLY MENTION IN TAF IS A PROB30
AT LAL. A FEW SHOWERS STILL CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST BUT
THEY WILL BE ISOLATED AND FAST MOVING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA START TO SLOWLY DRIFT AWAY FROM THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA WE WILL SEE WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHOULD BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER,
WAVES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE BETWEEN 5 TO 7 FEET AND SHOULD
TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO COME DOWN RESULTING IN US CONTINUING OUR
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WINDS
AND WAVES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT WILL BE ABLE TO
EXPIRE. AFTER THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA STARTS TO MOVE AWAY DRIER AIR WILL
START TO FILTER IN BRINGING DRIER AIR FOR OUR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO START TO CALM DOWN BY TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER
WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SOME SHOWERS CHANCES WILL
START TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 92 79 93 / 10 10 10 20
FMY 77 94 77 95 / 10 30 20 20
GIF 75 96 75 96 / 10 10 30 10
SRQ 79 93 77 94 / 10 10 20 20
BKV 74 95 73 95 / 0 10 20 30
SPG 80 91 79 93 / 10 10 10 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR TAMPA BAY
WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...PEARCE
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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