475
FXUS62 KTBW 221116
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
716 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH LARGE CHOPPY SEAS PERSISTS
TODAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SITES, THEN SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE NEAR COASTAL AREAS AFTER 00Z. THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST AWAY
FROM THE FORECAST AREA AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES
TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT HAVE BASICALLY PULLED
AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND PENINSULA. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY ALONG AREA BEACHES.
MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS ADVECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH PCPW
VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE. THIS WILL GREATLY REDUCE
AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
THURSDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH HIGHEST POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH IN REGION
OF BEST AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. THE DECREASED CLOUD
COVER/RAIN WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATIC NORMALS.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CENTRAL AND SOUTH ON FRIDAY
AND HOLD OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND WITH GREATEST AREAL
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THAT REGION...WITH RELATIVELY LOW
POPS CONTINUING NORTH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY ONSHORE. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
HIGHEST POPS TO THE INTERIOR DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY AS GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY, BUT WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM
THE WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE WHICH WILL
MAINTAIN ADVISORY LEVELS CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, HOWEVER SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN A BIT
ELEVATED.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHICH WILL KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. ELEVATED DISPERSIONS WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 92 79 94 79 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 94 76 96 77 / 40 20 30 10
GIF 96 76 96 76 / 10 30 10 0
SRQ 93 77 95 77 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 95 73 96 73 / 20 10 10 10
SPG 91 79 93 79 / 10 10 10 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR COASTAL
WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT
20 TO 60 NM.
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