733
FXUS62 KTBW 221737
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
137 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN SCATTERED STORMS
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR NOW OVER FLORIDA. THERE ARE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THAT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, BUT IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE SOME
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST/TAMPA BAY REGION TONIGHT
AFTER 00Z BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION, WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GIVING WAY
TO THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOWER
TOMORROW, BUT THEN MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO ONSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SHIFTING HIGHEST POPS TO THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE
FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SITES, THEN STILL THINKING WE WILL SEE SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER 00Z NEAR THE TAMPA BAY REGION. VFR CONTINUES
TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOWER THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN INCREASE
STARTING FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 94 78 94 / 30 20 20 30
FMY 76 96 77 94 / 40 30 10 80
GIF 76 96 75 95 / 40 20 10 40
SRQ 77 95 76 95 / 30 20 20 60
BKV 74 96 73 96 / 20 20 20 20
SPG 79 94 79 94 / 20 10 20 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 7
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
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