187
FXUS62 KTBW 230027
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
827 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN SCATTERED STORMS
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
LATE START TO THIS AFTERNOON'S SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SW FL THAT ARE STILL
BUILDING NWARD UP THE INTO C FL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
WEAKENING AND DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE W COAST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
THE RIP CURRENT STATEMENT WAS EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY AS BERTHA'S
LONG PERIOD SWELLS IN C GULF MOVE ASHORE LOCAL BEACHES THURSDAY
WITH WAVE ENERGY PRODUCING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
LINE OF SEABREEZE VCSH/VCTS ONGOING FROM NEAR SW FL TERMINALS
CONTINUES BUILDING NWARD TO KEEP MENTION IN TAFS THRU 02-04Z WITH
BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. VFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS THEN AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
VCTS THU AFT 18-20Z.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR NOW OVER FLORIDA. THERE ARE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THAT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
MOVE MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, BUT IT DOES STILL LOOK LIKE SOME
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST/TAMPA BAY REGION TONIGHT
AFTER 00Z BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND DIMINISHING.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS
BACK OVER THE REGION, WITH SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS GIVING WAY
TO THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOWER
TOMORROW, BUT THEN MOISTURE STARTS TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. FLOW THEN SHIFTS TO ONSHORE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, SHIFTING HIGHEST POPS TO THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON
AFTER MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE REGION. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW INTO THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOWER THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN INCREASE
STARTING FRIDAY AS MOISTURE STARTS TO INCREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 78 94 78 94 / 30 20 20 30
FMY 76 96 77 94 / 40 30 10 80
GIF 76 96 75 95 / 40 20 10 40
SRQ 77 95 76 95 / 30 20 20 60
BKV 74 96 73 96 / 20 20 20 20
SPG 79 94 79 94 / 20 10 20 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...DAVIS
DECISION SUPPORT...WYNN
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...WYNN
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