842
FXUS62 KTBW 230729
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
329 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS CONTINUING TO
SLIDE WEST ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST, WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS
RIDGING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF. THIS PATTERN IS KEEPING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE,
ALTHOUGH SWELLS FROM BERTHA ARE MOVING WEST INTO AREA BEACHES AND
WILL CONTINUE THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY. WITH POCKETS OF
DRIER AIR LINGERING ALOFT, RAIN COVERAGE TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE
LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY, WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, AND ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALLOWING RAIN COVERAGE TO INCREASE, MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OUT
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST
OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE FLOW PATTERN TO WESTERLY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. UNDER THIS PATTERN, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WILL SHIFT INTO THE COASTAL
AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SHIFT INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND
KRSW, KFMY, AND KPGD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
SEAS OF 4-5 FEET WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS SWELLS SHIFT EAST INTO
THE WATERS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS BERTHA DISSIPATES AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL SETUP EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS, TURNING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
GENERALLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK, TURNING ONSHORE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TODAY, THEN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 4, WHILE THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO SEE LOWER RAIN COVERAGE.
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 94 78 94 79 / 20 20 50 30
FMY 96 77 94 77 / 30 20 70 30
GIF 96 76 95 77 / 10 10 50 10
SRQ 95 76 95 77 / 30 20 60 30
BKV 96 72 96 74 / 20 10 40 20
SPG 94 78 94 80 / 20 30 50 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR THURSDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL
SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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