592
FXUS62 KTBW 231856
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
256 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES TODAY, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS
RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
LATEST SATELLITE AND MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICT RIDGING AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT EXTENDING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE PWATS
CONTINUE TO RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF ATYPICALLY LOWER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES.
MORNING 12Z TBW AND LATEST REGIONAL ACARS SOUNDING INDICATE DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW, SUPPORTING PREDOMINANTLY LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS W FL IN RESPONSE TO
THE E FL SEA BREEZE MAKING IT WAY ACROSS THE STATE AND INTERACTING
THE W FL SEA BREEZE THAT MOST LIKELY WON'T MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS
INLAND GIVEN THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW. WITH CONVECTION
LARGELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY COUPLED WITH REDUCED
CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE
OF THE W FL SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DESPITE THE WARM
TEMPS, FEELS LIKE TEMPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
IN THE LOW TO MID 100S AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY TEMPERED HUMIDITY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND PUSH OFFSHORE BY THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, GIVING
WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT.
ON FRIDAY, A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BAHAMAS WILL PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA RESULTING IN
INCREASING MOISTURE LOCALLY WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES, AND A
CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA, WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, HIGHEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4 WITHIN THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY FOCUS TOWARD
COASTAL AREAS WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE MAXIMIZED, WITH
24-HR PMM QPF TOTALS GENERALLY UP TO AROUND AN INCH ACROSS S
INTERIOR AND COASTAL WC/SWFL LOCATIONS, AND A FEW BULLEYES
APPROACHING 1.5+ INCHES OVER SWFL WHERE THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS
LOOK TO BE MOST FAVORED. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST ACROSS NORTHERN INTO
CENTRAL LOCATIONS, BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY A FEW DEGREES TO THE
SOUTH OWING TO INCREASED SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER.
HIGH-LATITUDE BLOCKING SETS UP ACROSS GREENLAND AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE WEEKEND, FORCING LONGWAVE TROUGHING TO SET UP
OVER THE E SEABOARD AND THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PENINSULA TO SINK SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WHILE RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE WEST OVER THE W/C CONUS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE THE MID-
ATLANTIC DROPS INTO THE SE U.S. AND STALLS, DISPLACING THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TO WESTERLY, ULTIMATELY SHIFTING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOCALLY TO FAVOR SCATTERED OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, SHIFTING INLAND AND
BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. THIS PATTERN THEN
LOOKS TO HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK, GENERALLY FAVORING SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGH TEMPS, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEGREES COASTAL AND LOWER TO MID 90S INTERIOR OVER THE WEEKEND,
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80S COASTAL TO LOWER 90S INTERIOR OVER THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON FOR TPA/PIE/SRQ AS THE W FL SEA BREEZE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH INLAND, FOLLOWED BY HIGHER CHANCES THIS EVENING AS THE
COMBINATION OF A REMNANT E FL SEA BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE PUSH
OFFSHORE. BEST SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR REMAINING TERMINALS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION PUSHES
WEST ACROSS TERMINALS. WINDS GENERALLY ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST
WITH THE SEA BREEZE, BECOMING EASTERLY TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE WATERS WILL FAVOR LOWER RAIN
CHANCES AND WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY, ALTHOUGH SEAS
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OFFSHORE WITH HIGHER SWELLS CONTINUING
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL STORM BERTHA OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY AS BERTHA MOVES
FURTHER AWAY AND WEAKENS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
SE U.S., BRINGING A SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW WITH OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS,
GRADUALLY SHIFTING ONSHORE MID TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRIER AIR TODAY WILL FAVOR LOWER THAN
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN APPROACHING
EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE BRINGING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. RIDGING
SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE SE U.S., BRINGING A SHIFT TO WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA FAVORING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS, GRADUALLY SHIFTING
ONSHORE MID TO LATE MORNING AND BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 77 94 79 93 / 20 20 20 30
FMY 77 94 77 93 / 20 70 30 50
GIF 75 95 76 96 / 10 30 10 40
SRQ 76 95 77 93 / 30 40 20 30
BKV 72 96 74 95 / 20 10 10 20
SPG 78 94 79 92 / 20 30 10 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...HURT
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
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