092
FXUS62 KTBW 241232
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
832 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 107
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
CURRENTLY AT THE SURFACE, ATLANTIC RIDGING IS CONTINUING TO EXTEND
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF, SETTING
UP LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW TODAY. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY, WHILE A DRIER AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, RAIN COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
4, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING. MEANWHILE, AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 4 CORRIDOR AND TO THE NORTH SHOULD ONLY SEE
ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE AT THE MOST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN A
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE AND RAIN
CHANCES TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD, ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 100S.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST SUNDAY AS A FRONT
STALLS OUT NORTH OF FLORIDA, RESULTING IN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN WILL FEATURE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND SHIFTING ONSHORE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING. THE CONVECTION WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
BUILD INLAND WITH THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR EACH
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 828 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
DRIER AIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WILL BRING IN LOWER
STORM CHANCES RESULTING IN KEEPING THEM OUT OF OUR TAFS. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN SW FLORIDA TO PRODUCE EVENING
STORMS WITH TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR PGD, FMY, AND RSW. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE WATERS TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL
FAVOR EASTERLY FLOW, TURNING ONSHORE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN HEADLINE
CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST BY SUNDAY,
SETTING UP A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
SHIFTING ONSHORE AND INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 309 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
4. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED
AND ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY PERCENTAGES TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S
THIS AFTERNOON IN A FEW SPOTS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTH ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 95 79 93 82 / 10 20 20 10
FMY 94 77 93 79 / 70 30 30 20
GIF 96 76 96 78 / 20 10 40 20
SRQ 96 77 93 80 / 40 30 20 10
BKV 97 74 95 78 / 10 10 10 20
SPG 95 79 92 82 / 20 30 20 10
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 3
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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