970
FXUS62 KTBW 241755
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
155 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES WITH WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 107
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WE ARE SEEING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THIS
CAN BE SEEN WITH OUR MORNING SOUNDING COMING IN AT 1.5. THINGS ARE A
LITTLE DIFFERENT DOWN SOUTH. MIAMI SKEW-T IS SHOWING PW AROUND 2.2
AND SHOWERS ARE ALREADY CROSSING OVER THE STATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
THIS WILL BRING A BIG CONTRAST ACROSS OUR CWA WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 WHILE SW FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE A MORE
ACTIVE SUMMER TIME STORM PATTERN.
MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO RETURN FOR EVERYONE ON SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE
SITS JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP EASTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE HOWEVER IT WILL BE WEAK WITH AVERAGE WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 1000
TO 700MB AROUND 4 TO 5 KNOTS. THAT MEANS STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL HEAD TOWARDS THE WEST COAST BUT BE SLOW MOVING. CONVECTION
COULD DIE OUT BEFORE SHOWERS REACH THE COAST IN THE LATE EVENING
HOURS.
AS WE GO INTO OUR SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START DROP DOWN
INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES TO END
OUR WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THANKS TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING MUCH OF THE CONVECTION INLAND AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE STATE
FOR OUR WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. WITH THIS FLOW WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ALONG THE WEST COAST IN THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
GFS IS ALSO SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX PUSHING INTO THE STATE
ON THURSDAY WHICH COULD INCREASE WINDS AND STORM CHANCES ON THAT DAY
IF IT VERIFIES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
DRIER AIR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY WILL BRING IN LOWER
STORM CHANCES RESULTING IN KEEPING THEM OUT OF OUR TAFS. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN SW FLORIDA TO PRODUCE EVENING
STORMS WITH TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR PGD, FMY, AND RSW. WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW 10 KNOTS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR BOTH TODAY AND
SATURDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED STORMS PUSHING OFF THE WEST COAST DURING
THE EVENING HOURS. A BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO FLORIDA AND STALL IN
THE STATE FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS EACH DAY. DUE TO THE WEST FLOW
AND EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE BOUNDARY WE WILL SEE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP EACH DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THESE STORMS WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST AND INLAND DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WE ARE SEE SOME DRIER AIR TODAY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURNS TOMORROW AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE STATE STARTING ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 95 79 93 81 / 20 30 30 20
FMY 94 77 93 79 / 70 30 30 30
GIF 96 76 96 77 / 20 10 40 20
SRQ 96 77 93 80 / 40 20 30 20
BKV 97 74 95 77 / 10 20 20 30
SPG 95 79 92 81 / 30 30 20 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR FRIDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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