952
FXUS62 KTBW 251208
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
808 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 109 DEGREES TODAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY, KEEPING LIGHT WINDS AND HOT TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FILL INTO THE AREA, LEADING TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE OVER THE INTERIOR, AS
WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN TO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CLEAR OUT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT AROUND 108-109 OVER PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST TODAY, AND
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NOON TO 7 PM FOR LEVY,
CITRUS, HERNANDO AND SUMTER COUNTIES. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 102-107, ALTHOUGH
A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHER VALUES.
ON SUNDAY, THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OUT NORTH OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL SETUP
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
UNDER THIS PATTERN, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GULF DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND COULD SHIFT ONSHORE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
LIGHTER FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. IF WE SEE STORMS ALONG OUR
COASTAL SITES IT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FROM THE ATLANTIC
WILL RETREAT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW
THIS MORNING BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY,
THEN BECOMING WESTERLY BY MONDAY AND HOLDING THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KNOTS THROUGH
TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
TURN TO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 81 92 81 / 30 10 30 20
FMY 92 78 92 79 / 40 20 60 20
GIF 96 77 95 78 / 50 30 70 20
SRQ 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 40 20
BKV 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 30 40
SPG 92 81 92 81 / 20 20 20 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 8
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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