344
FXUS62 KTBW 251807
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 109 DEGREES TODAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS MOVED SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY OVER OUR
AREA. THIS IS RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS PUSHING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT FLOW OVER THE AREA TODAY.
THIS LIGHT FLOW TYPICALLY RESULTS IN SOME EARLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ALONG THE COAST, WHICH WE ARE ALREADY SEEING IN SW FLORIDA, BEFORE
THE STORM ACTIVITY MOVES INLAND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE STILL IN A DROUGHT THIS LIGHTER FLOW
REGIME RESULTS IN SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH COULD BRING SOME
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING TO AREAS THAT END UP DIRECTLY UNDER A
STRONGER STORM.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL END UP
STALLING OVER THE STATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE OUR MOISTURE AND KEEPING PW
AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FLOW REGIME WITH THAT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TYPICALLY BRINGS US MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL HELP TO STRENGTHEN
THE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER US SINCE SUNDAY. MODELS
SHOWING PW ABOVE 2.25 AND WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 15 MPH. IF
THAT VERIFIES IT COULD BRING A WET AND BREEZY END TO OUR WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
LIGHTER FLOW TODAY WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
ALONG THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE. IF WE SEE STORMS ALONG OUR
COASTAL SITES IT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS BELOW 10 KNOTS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO OUR SUNDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL START
TO PUSH INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST AND
INCREASE THEM TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE LEADING
TO OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS IN THE GULF THAT WILL PUSH ONTO
LAND IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE HELPING TO RESTRENGTHEN THE BOUNDARY. THIS
WILL HELP TO INCREASE OUR WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY RESULTING IN
MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING DAILY SHOWER
CHANCES FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 81 92 81 / 30 10 30 20
FMY 92 78 92 79 / 40 20 60 20
GIF 96 77 95 78 / 50 30 70 20
SRQ 93 80 93 80 / 30 20 40 20
BKV 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 30 40
SPG 92 81 92 81 / 20 20 20 20
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 2
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 8
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-
INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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