295
FXUS62 KTBW 260713
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
313 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 107 DEGREES DURING EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS POSITIONED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST WHILE A BROAD RIDGE BLOCK SITS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL LARGELY HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DEEPEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OFF THE
EAST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN FORCED
SOUTH OF THE AREA, SETTING UP GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY FAVORS LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND SHIFTING INTO THE COAST AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BUILDING INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN COVERAGE
TYPICALLY INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
102-107.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, A DEVELOPING SURFACE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL PRODUCE A TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, INCREASING THE
WESTERLY FLOW. WITH THESE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS, THE RISK OF
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT AREA BEACHES DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHIFTING INTO THE COAST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND KRSW, KFMY, AND KPGD. MORE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING AREA TERMINALS AT TIMES THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS THEY BUILD INLAND. RAIN FREE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA BY AROUND 02Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD THROUGH THE WEEK AS A SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA AND THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE GETS
PUSHED SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE
EVENING AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE COAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE BUILDING INTO THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
THEN BUILD TO AROUND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WESTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND SHIFTING ONSHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, THEN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING
INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NO
HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 93 81 91 81 / 30 20 50 40
FMY 92 79 93 79 / 70 30 30 40
GIF 95 78 94 77 / 60 10 70 30
SRQ 92 80 92 79 / 30 20 40 50
BKV 95 78 93 76 / 20 40 50 20
SPG 92 81 90 81 / 20 20 50 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 8
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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