569
FXUS62 KTBW 261856
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
256 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 102 TO 107 DEGREES DURING EACH OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH IS INCREASING OUR MOISTURE WITH
THE MORNING SOUNDING SHOWING PW AROUND 2.3. IT HAS ALSO SHIFTED
OUR WINDS MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS EVIDENT AS WE CAN SEE MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY
SHOULD PUSH MORE INLAND AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
THE WESTERLY WINDS AND INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP US
IN A SIMILIAR PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING SHOWERS COMING
OFF THE GULF THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
ON THURSDAY WE WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVE DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL HELP TO MOVE THE STALLED BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH
INTO FLORIDA. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE EVEN MORE AND
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA TOMORROW SO ADDED VCSH AND TEMPO SHRA
FOR OUR NORTHERN SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED IN GEORGIA IS HELPING TO SHIFT
WINDS TO THE WEST AND INCREASE THEM TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MOISTURE WILL
ALSO INCREASE LEADING TO OVERNIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS IN THE GULF
THAT WILL PUSH ONTO LAND IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE STATE HELPING TO RESTRENGTHEN
THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE OUR WESTERLY WINDS TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS TROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
RESULTING IN MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
DAILY SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 91 81 92 / 20 60 30 40
FMY 78 92 79 91 / 20 20 40 60
GIF 77 93 77 95 / 10 60 10 40
SRQ 80 92 79 92 / 10 50 40 40
BKV 78 93 77 94 / 40 70 20 40
SPG 81 90 81 91 / 10 60 40 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...SHIVELEY
DECISION SUPPORT...SHIVELEY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...SHIVELEY
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