707
FXUS62 KTBW 270659
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES DURING EACH OF THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL HOLD NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA, THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE SURFACE
RIDGE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT,
THE AREA WILL REMAIN LOCKED INTO MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THIS
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT EACH DAY AND SHIFTING INTO THE COAST AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION BUILDS INTO THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON. WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MAY
KEEP MANY LOCATIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH A SIMILAR SETUP
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING SURFACE LOW NORTH OF
FLORIDA. AS A RESULT, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER
ONSHORE WINDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO TAMPA BAY AREA
TERMINALS STARTING AROUND 10Z THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY AROUND 16Z. PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE
OVER INDIVIDUAL TERMINALS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND SHIFTING
ONSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS BUILDING TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS
AT TIMES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHIFTING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 81 92 82 / 70 40 40 20
FMY 92 79 91 80 / 30 50 60 10
GIF 93 77 95 79 / 70 20 60 10
SRQ 92 79 92 80 / 50 50 40 20
BKV 93 77 94 78 / 60 30 40 20
SPG 90 80 90 82 / 60 40 40 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND LEVY-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
FLEMING
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