853
FXUS62 KTBW 271216
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
816 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS HEAT
INDEX VALUES DURING EACH OF THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
THIS MORNING, WITH SOME TOTALS IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CITRUS COUNTY
ALREADY EXCEEDING 3 TO 4 INCHES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE AREAS
THAT HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE SEEN A BREAK IN THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL. NEVERTHELESS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN IN MORE URBANIZED AREAS OF CITRUS COUNTY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE EXPECTATION IS THE CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FL AND PERHAPS EVEN EVENTUALLY SWFL. HOWEVER, DIURNAL HEATING ALSO
FAVORS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES FARTHER
SOUTH AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
AS STORMS CLEAR OUT FROM THE NATURE COAST, THE WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS LEFT IN THEIR WAKE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING FAVOR HEAT
INDICES REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON. FARTHER
SOUTH, THE SLIGHTLY LATER THUNDERSTORM TIMING (AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER FROM STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR) SHOULD HELP SUPPRESS THE FEELS-
LIKE TEMPERATURES JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM
BEING MET.
OVERALL, CURRENT EXPECTATIONS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST. NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL HOLD NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A SERIES OF SURFACE
LOWS NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA, THAT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE SURFACE
RIDGE DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT,
THE AREA WILL REMAIN LOCKED INTO MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AVAILABLE, THIS
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OVERNIGHT EACH DAY AND SHIFTING INTO THE COAST AT
TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE CONVECTION BUILDS INTO THE
INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON. WITH HUMID
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EXCEED ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH, ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON MAY
KEEP MANY LOCATIONS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH A SIMILAR SETUP
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING SURFACE LOW NORTH OF
FLORIDA. AS A RESULT, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER
ONSHORE WINDS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE VICINITY OF TAMPA BAY AND CENTRAL FL TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT OFF AND ON IMPACTS WILL OCCUR OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH THE ACTIVITY SLOWLY SHIFTING MORE SOUTHWARD
AND INTO THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE DAY. WITH A WSW REMAINING IN
PLACE, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MORNING FOR WEST COAST TERMINALS EACH DAY. THE
BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSITION INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA. THIS WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS AND SHIFTING
ONSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ON WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS BUILDING TO CAUTIONARY OR ADVISORY LEVELS
AT TIMES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHIFTING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF AT TIMES THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO HUMIDITY CONCERNS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 81 92 82 / 70 40 40 20
FMY 92 79 91 80 / 30 50 60 10
GIF 93 77 95 79 / 70 20 60 10
SRQ 92 79 92 80 / 50 50 40 20
BKV 93 77 94 78 / 60 30 40 20
SPG 90 80 90 82 / 60 40 40 30
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR MONDAY: 8
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 2
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND LEVY-SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...FLANNERY
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