889
FXUS62 KTBW 272346
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
746 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A
WSW WIND FLOW PREVAILS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARM, IN EXCESS OF 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN, PARTICULARLY IN URBANIZED
AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
QUIETER EVENING UNDERWAY FOLLOWING ACTIVE DAY WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE AREA. THE TAMPA BAY AREA
DOWN THROUGH THE BRADENTON AREA AND WESTERN MANATEE COUNTY, ALONG
WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-4 ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WERE THE PRIMARY
BENEFICIARIES OF TODAY'S RAINFALL. HALF-INCH PLUS TOTALS WERE
COMMON ACROSS THOSE AREAS, HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED 1-2
INCHES, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF
HERNANDO, SUMTER, CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES. ACTIVITY HAS SINCE
DIMINISHED, AND CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT THE GENERAL
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA, TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS GRADUALLY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE FROM COASTAL
TOWARD INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, HI-RES QPF
PMM OUTPUT INDICATE THAT HIGHEST TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COAST THAN INTERIOR
LOCATIONS, AND GENERALLY ACROSS WC/SWFL AREAS. MOIST AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL TRANSLATE TO OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE
MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES, WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO THE MID 90S INLAND. NATURE
COAST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
CLOUD COVER, AT LEAST EARLIER IN THE DAY, MAY ONCE AGAIN REQUIRE
HEAT ADVISORY PRODUCTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SUPPRESSED TO THE SE OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW SLOWLY
MEANDERS SOUTHWARD OFF THE SE COAST. THIS IS DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WEST CONUS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS. IN RESPONSE, A WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS FLORIDA, WITH
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION. THE 12Z SOUNDING
SHOWED A PWAT OF 2.04 INCHES THIS MORNING. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THIS
COMES IN NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY, SUGGESTING THERE IS
MORE MOISTURE PRESENT THAN A "TYPICAL" DAY.
INDEED, THIS HAS PLAYED OUT, WITH A MULTICELLULAR CLUSTER CONTINUING
TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS POPPED UP ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO REDEVELOPED ACROSS THE NATURE COAST IN
AREAS THAT ALREADY SAW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING, THANKS TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND AN OPPORTUNITY TO CLEAR OUT FOR AWHILE. NEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH SUNSET
TONIGHT.
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN REMAINS VERY STATIC.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT IN THE WEST, WHILE A TROUGH
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE E CONUS. REALLY, THE ONLY ELEMENT OF NOTE
IS THAT THE WINDS SHIFT MORE TO WSW AND INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS IS DUE TO SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TROUGH AXIS, AND THUS A SLIGHT
SOUTHWARD SHIFT FOR THE RIDGE, ALLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT TO
SLOWLY MEANDER FARTHER SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK. HIGH PWATS REMAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD, LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
THE COMPOUNDING INFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FAVOR A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
HOWEVER, ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS STILL ALLOW FOR QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
TO FALL BEFORE MAJOR PROBLEMS OCCUR. THUS, THE PRIMARY THREAT - FOR
THIS WEEK AT LEAST - WILL REMAIN IN MORE URBAN AREAS.
WITH THIS FLOW IN PLACE, IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ALONG THE COAST ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW 80
DEGREES. FOR THESE AREAS, THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY MAY IN
FACT OCCUR DURING DAYTIME HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
THROUGH. IN AREAS THAT DON'T SEE RAIN, THIS COMBO WILL FAVOR HEAT
INDICES APPROACHING 108 DEGREES BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST, WHERE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
CONTINUE TO BE NEEDED FOR DAYS TO COME.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THIS PATTERN TO BREAK IS NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
SLOWLY BUILDS BACK IN. IN RESPONSE TO THIS CHANGE, A MORE SOUTHERLY
THEN PERHAPS ESE FLOW RETURNS. THIS FAVORS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY SUNNY MORNINGS AND
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOIST W/SW
FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE, SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING ASHORE IMPACTING TERMINALS. WILL REMAIN A
BIT TRICKY TO NARROW MOST FAVORED TIME WINDOWS, HOWEVER THE
GENERAL SETUP FAVORS MID-LATE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
COASTAL AND SLOWLY SPREADING INLAND ACROSS TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INDICATED VCSH OR PROB30 FOR
SHOWERS AFTER 08Z, FOLLOWED BY VCTS AFTER 13-15Z... PERSISTING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. FURTHER REFINEMENT POSSIBLE AS GUIDANCE SIGNALS
AND TRENDS BECOME EVIDENT OVER TIME. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED IN/NEAR CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALLY GUSTY/ERRATIC
WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
COASTAL WATERS AT NEARLY ANYTIME WITH A WSW FLOW CONTINUING.
HOWEVER, THE BEST POTENTIAL IS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH LATE
MORNING EACH DAY. AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTH OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE WINDS WILL INCREASE, LEADING TO HIGHER SEAS.
THE HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MEAN MORE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
BOATERS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
AMPLE MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE THURSDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE DRIEST DAY THIS WEEK
IS LIKELY TO BE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SETUP IS NOT
CONDUCIVE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 81 91 81 91 / 50 50 30 50
FMY 79 90 80 91 / 60 60 20 20
GIF 77 94 78 94 / 20 50 20 50
SRQ 79 91 80 91 / 60 50 20 40
BKV 76 93 77 93 / 30 40 40 40
SPG 80 90 81 90 / 50 50 30 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...FLANNERY
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...PEARCE
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