207
FXUS62 KTBW 280442
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1242 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR LEVY, CITRUS, AND SUMTER COUNTIES.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A
WSW WIND FLOW PREVAILS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WARM, IN EXCESS OF 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN, PARTICULARLY IN URBANIZED
AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
ONSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FAVORS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHICH ADVECT LOCALLY ONSHORE, ESPECIALLY AROUND AND
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. WEAK U/L DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION WILL
AID IN PRODUCING LARGE SCALE LIFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA WILL ALSO CREATE THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING OF STREETS/LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP OVER NORTH FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NATURE COAST WITH A CONTINUED
RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING. THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
CONTINUED HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN. THE FLOOD THREAT MAY POTENTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS DAILY RAINFALL TOTALS ACCUMULATE AND ANTECEDENT
SOIL CONDITIONS BECOME HIGHLY SATURATED.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY TRY TO WORK ITS WAY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WOULD DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AT
TPA/PIE/SRQ WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING A
FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE WITH LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBYS. FMY/RSW/PGD
SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT LCL
BKN250. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP VCNTY ALL TERMINALS
ON TUESDAY WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS...AND MVFR
CIGS/IFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH NIGHT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH AREAL COVERAGE DECREASING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA. WINDS MAY INCREASE TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS FOR A TIME LATE
IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1216 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 91 81 91 81 / 50 30 50 40
FMY 90 80 92 80 / 70 30 30 10
GIF 94 78 94 79 / 50 10 40 10
SRQ 91 80 91 80 / 60 30 40 30
BKV 94 78 93 78 / 50 30 40 50
SPG 90 81 90 82 / 60 30 50 40
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR TUESDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR WEDNESDAY: 5
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND LEVY-
SUMTER.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...OGLESBY
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