589
FXUS62 KTBW 220007
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
807 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER AIR ALOFT FOR SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. LINGERING BATCH OF
STRATIFORM RAIN OVER EASTERN POLK COUNTY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS W FL. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY SPARK AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR PERHAPS
A STORM THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE EVENING. A PLUME OF
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR ADVECTING NE ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY IS LIKELY TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, WITH POPS MAINLY
30% OR LESS FOR AREAS OUTSIDE OF PARTS OF THE NATURE COAST AND
PERHAPS PARTS OF INTERIOR S FL. WHILE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUES, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 IMMEDIATE COASTAL AND
LOWER TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
VERY LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE DOES SHOW ADDITIONAL
STORMS FLARING UP OVER THE INTERIOR LATER THIS EVENING. THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE QUIET, THEN ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING EARLY
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE GULF AND COASTAL AREAS FROM AROUND TAMPA
BAY NORTHWARD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MODIFIED...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA SATURDAY, WHICH WILL AID IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
ONSHORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
INLAND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ON SUNDAY, SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF, WHICH WILL ADVECT ONSHORE PORTIONS OF THE
NATURE COAST. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS.
CONTINUED HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH OVERALL WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE DAY, LIKELY
COLLIDING OVER THE INTERIOR LATE IN THE DAY WHICH WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR HIGHEST POPS.
ON TUESDAY, LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL HOLD DAILY POPS
BELOW CLIMATIC NORMALS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MID WEEK WHICH WILL INCREASE POPS
OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS NORTH AND
CENTRAL. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATIC NORMALS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LGT/VRB TO W-SW WINDS
OVERNIGHT INCREASE OUT OF THE W-SW LATE MORNING, TO GENERALLY 10
KNOTS OR LESS. DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER THE PENINSULA WILL
LIMIT SHOWER/STORM CHANCES, WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR POTENTIAL
IMPACTS ACROSS TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATERS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL
KEEP MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER COASTAL AREAS IN THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY
SPREADING INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TPA 80 91 80 90 / 10 20 40 50
FMY 79 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 30
GIF 76 95 75 93 / 20 10 20 60
SRQ 78 92 78 91 / 0 10 20 40
BKV 74 92 74 91 / 10 30 40 50
SPG 81 91 80 89 / 10 20 40 50
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SATURDAY: 4
SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORM REGIME FOR SUNDAY: 4
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SEA BREEZE REGIMES, GO TO:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TBW/THUNDERSTORMCLIMATOLOGY
TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
UPDATE/AVIATION...HURT
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...CARLISLE
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...FLANNERY
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